On Trying to Visit the Future (and Finding It Vaguely Familiar)

In 1893, Chicago played host to the World's Columbian Exposition.  Europe's industrialists and princelings came and saw a city and nation on the rise.  Just 22 years after the Great Fire, Chicago was growing at a rapid clip, its construction (and giant slaughterhouses) providing jobs to the masses of immigrants arriving daily, including my ancestors.  There were growing pains, to be sure, but the coming American Century was on display for those who visited Chicago in 1893.  For our guests from the Old World, that may have been a rather disconcerting realization.

And, fully recognizing that I could never possibly come close to understanding China in 3 days (you'd need 3 decades), I went to Shanghai.  Frankly, if one wanted to see the birth of a modern power, I'm way too late, arriving during the new China's adolescent phase.  Yes, I am aware of the irony in referring to a civilization that's been around for millenia as adolescent, but China has re-booted itself several times and the current incarnation is a bit of a teenager, still learning how to project its power in the world.

After years of hearing fear-mongering in the States about how China is bound to surpass us -- that they own too much of our debt, that their children are more disciplined, that, unlike 21st Century USA, this is a country that can still do big things -- I came wondering if my experience would be similar to an Englishman visiting Chicago in 1893.

Indeed, the Chinese have accomplished something remarkable.  The rise of hundreds of millions of people from poverty over the last 30 years ranks right along side the Information Age and the fall of Communism as the most important societal changes of our time.  The Chinese were able to accomplish it with measures we would find unconscionable, such as the one-child policy and a police state that can order the building of cities and destruction of villages at the stroke of a pen.  There is a reason they can do big things, you know, and I really don't think it's a price we're willing to pay.

When you get off the plane in Shanghai, you can take the "Maglev" train to the edge of the city proper.  As the words magnetic levitation imply, the train doesn't use wheels, and travels at about 165 mph/300 kph.  You can see my photo of the on-board display of the train's speed below.

Now this is the future I came to experience!  Their airport and train may be better than anything we have, but what does that really say about the future?  More telling, I think, is that I arrived right after some of the worst smog Shanghai had experienced in years.  People happily told me I had arrived on a "sunny" day, but really, it still looked a little hazy to me -- and felt that way to my lungs.

One can only be impressed, however, after visiting Shanghai's Urban Planning Museum, where you can see a full scale model of the city (see below, but know that I could only get about 80% of the model in the shot).  It's a must for anyone who ever played SimCity.

Some might find this a little disconcerting, but I don't.  Some day in the next ten years, the Chinese economy will tie, and then surpass, the size of the American economy.  When that day arrives, we will hear how we now are in the Chinese Century and there will be a little crisis of ego in the States.  In reality, all it will mean is that since there are 4 times as many Chinese as Americans, the average Chinese will have 1/4 the GDP per capita of the average American.  That's not a cause for fear, again, that's cause to marvel at the end of poverty for hundreds of millions of people.

I would rather be playing America's hand, however, both now and for the foreseeable future.  China's challenges remain more difficult than ours.  They have 50 million more men than women, a population that's aging at an alarming rate, endemic corruption, human rights abuses, awful environmental conditions, and a population that, inevitably, will demand greater freedom and autonomy.  We have an economy still recovering from self-inflicted wounds, a political system designed centuries ago that cannot respond quickly enough to the demands of the modern age, tragic levels of violence, and enemies still determined to knock us where they can.  We also have people lining up around the world (including in Shanghai) to enter the US.  Apart from North Koreans, you don't see people who are beating down China's doors to get inside.  If nothing else I write convinces you about the relative standing of these 2 countries, the wisdom of those crowds should tell you something.

But wait, you say, haven't we been borrowing money from the Chinese, giving them leverage over our economy and foreign policy?  Truthfully, we bought Chinese goods, helped finance their economic rise, and then borrowed the money back.  They got millions out of poverty and we used the money in part to go to war in Iraq -- you can decide who got the better of that bargain.  But, the Chinese only own 8% of publicly held U.S. debt, roughly the same as our pals Japan and the U.K. combined.  And, ultimately, the Chinese are really more dependent on us than vice versa.  In the near and medium term, China desperately needs the US economy to succeed so we (and the rest of the world) can continue to buy Chinese goods and create jobs for China's population.  Whatever leverage they have is ultimately toothless -- if they use it, they will be worse off.

I don't fear the future.  And visiting China hasn't changed my mind.  American power is not going to look the same in the next 100 years.  We must recognize the limitations on our ability to throw our weight around anywhere we please.  That takes some getting used to.  America was able to run laps around the rest of the world while everyone else was recovering from World War Two.  That period is over and the U.S. economy faces competition now like never before.  The rise in living standards the U.S. experienced over most of the second half of the 20th Century simply occurred under conditions we are unlikely to see again, and the harsh truth is that we cannot expect similar gains in the decades to come.

The bottom line, though, is everyone has problems: Europe, China, Brazil, India, Russia, the developing world, etc., and I'd rather have ours.  Economically, China still has a long way to go to come close to matching the US.  And one local told me he doubted China could ever be an "economic threat" to the US because, in his opinion, Chinese schools did not encourage creativity.  In foreign affairs, cooperation will more and more be the order of the day, but that doesn't mean America will be replaced.  Far from it.  The recent spat between Japan and China (and, to a lesser extent, Korea) over some unpopulated rocks in the East China Sea only drives nations in the region away from China.  Look, we're not perfect, but America will continue to lead (in some changed way, shape, or form) as long as it wants, because no one else, including China, cares for that responsibility.

Forget Everything I Said

When possible, I like to talk with locals about what they think about America.  In Shanghai, I was asked first by a few what I thought of China.  This got a conversation started, and I heard some frank talk about the dissatisfaction some there have with their country.  I heard references to corruption, the Internet firewall, and the environment.  One topic that came up several times was income inequality.  While China is nominally Communist, it's certainly not a Communism that Marx or Mao would recognize.  Really, it's state capitalism.  Some people -- allegedly including those with family or other ties to top officials -- are doing extremely well.  When you've seen a few Lamborghinis cruising by People's Square, the irony isn't lost on anyone.  To those raised in a system where they're taught about Communism (and you can still hear the old Communist songs being sung karaoke-style on the streets), it's worse than irony, it's hypocrisy.

Technically speaking, China's income inequality is roughly the same as that of the United States, and there are recent signs that it's improving.  Americans, though, accept a degree of income inequality (though I'm sure that has its limits -- and I don't recommend approaching those limits).  You can't draw conclusions from the handful of conversations I had, but I don't know that the Chinese are as prepared.

The young Chinese I met are proud of their country and what it's accomplished, and they have long memories about the historical sins of the West (namely, the Opium Wars, the racism of the concession period in Shanghai history, and one even remarked about the West favoring Japan over China at the Treaty of Versailles).  But when I told one person that I admired the fact that China had raised the living standards of hundreds of millions of people in a few decades, he chuckled.  There are still a lot of poor people, he said, you just don't see them.  Another made an oblique reference to the events of "June 4" and "you know, the tanks" without ever using the words "1989" or "Tiananmen."

The opinions I heard were not severe by American standards -- I think almost every American I know has made stronger critiques of our government at one time or another than anything I heard in Shanghai.  By Chinese standards, though, perhaps there was a feeling that this last comment had crossed some invisible line that a Westerner wouldn't appreciate.  Because then, with a look that was at once both sheepish and wary, she ended this part of the conversation by telling me, "Forget everything I said."

71 Hours and 45 Minutes in Shanghai Without a Tourist Visa

China, along with a few other countries, requires US citizens to apply for and obtain visas at a consulate before arrival.  I didn't have the time or the patience to arrange for a tourist visa to enter China, so I took advantage of the "transit visa."  There are 5 places in China where you're allowed to arrive, spend 72 hours (as long as you don't leave the city), and move on to another country.  Shanghai is one of those places (along with Beijing, Guangzhou, Chengdu, and Chongqing).

All you have to do is make sure your departing flight from Shanghai is scheduled to leave no more than 72 hours and 0 minutes from your arrival.  When you check-in for your flight to Shanghai the desk agent for your airline will ask for a copy of your Chinese visa.  Your airline doesn't want to transport you to some place you're not going to be welcomed.  Not all desk agents are that familiar with the 72 hour rule for China.  When I told my desk agent from Dragonair in Hong Kong that I had no visa and what I was doing, she went to check with a supervisor, and carefully counted up my hours in Shanghai.  Upon seeing that my departing flight was scheduled to leave 71 hours and 45 minutes after my arrival, she said she was "worried" for me.  Really, though, there's nothing to worry about.  The only thing that could go wrong would be if my inbound flight to Shanghai were early, thereby meaning that I would be in Shanghai for more than 72 hours.  My understanding is that the clock starts when you approach the customs official, so if worse came to worse, I was prepared to sit in the bathroom until it was safe to emerge.  And really, what's the worst that can happen?  The whole point of this is that they want me to leave the country after 72 hours.  They certainly wouldn't detain me and keep me there longer!

I approached the customs official in Shanghai and, except for the fact that she had to go hunting for a special stamp, it went smoothly.  It's very important to show proof that you have purchased an outbound ticket and that you're going to some place different than from where you arrived (i.e., you can't leave home, go to China for 71 hours, and then just turn around and go back home).  And don't worry about what happens if your outbound flight is delayed, thereby keeping you in China for more than 72 hours.  That won't be held against you -- you only need proof that your purchased ticket was on a flight scheduled to leave within 72 hours.  The process did take a few minutes, as I had to fill out another form while I could feel the pain of the person behind me in line wondering why he was so unlucky to be waiting for the one fellow who was getting all of this special attention.

And I have to say that the Chinese customs official was very friendly.  Perhaps it's because this was the only customs area in the world that I've seen with a little keypad asking you, the traveler, to judge the customs official on a 4-point scale from Greatly Satisified to Satisified to Unsatisified to Greatly Unsatisfied (all with corresponding smiley-face or frowning-face emoticons).  After I got my stamp, I told her I was going to give her the "Greatly Satisified" grade -- and she beamed a big smile in response.