Friday, August 29, 2008

It's Palin. Really?

Apparently, John McCain will pick Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate. You may recall I named her as a person he should not pick. It does show, however, that McCain and his campaign decided they had to do something extraordinary, and not make a safe choice. If they really thought they had a 50/50 shot at winning this election, they would not have chosen someone who two years ago was mayor of a town of 8,000 people and for less than two years has been governor of one of our smallest states. Rather, they decided that in order to win they need to peel off people who supported Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary.

I do not want to sound crass when I write this, but it is the simple truth: actuarially speaking, whomever the candidates actually chose, John McCain's VP was always more likely to become president than Barack Obama's. This person's readiness should be a major issue on the minds of voters. I think it is fairly hard to argue Barack Obama is not ready to be president when your VP has so thin a resume.

Palin brings some significant advantages: an attractive mother of 5 (the youngest has Down's Syndrome), she was elected governor as a reformer, and will be a popular pick among conservatives. That reputation is tarnished somewhat by allegations she used her influence to try to fire a state trooper who was her ex-brother-in-law (UPDATE: as well as firing the head of the state police).

It is a high risk for McCain that is either brilliant or will seriously hurt his candidacy. It theoretically will bring excitement in the form of an outside-the-Beltway female conservative that bolsters McCain's "maverick" credential. If, however, Democrats can define her in the next 48 hours as unprepared to be a heartbeat away from the presidency (and maybe ethically compromised), then she may have a difficult task ahead.

(Sept. 2 UPDATE). I have been away for the last few days and not following the story closely, but it seems to me that her daughter's pregnancy should be a non-issue. Rather, her connections to the Alaskan Independence Party (which calls for a secession vote for Alaska and the takeover of federal land) and her original support for the Bridge to Nowhere should be the two most serious problems she faces. If the media does its job and focuses on them instead of her family issues, this should dominate the news coverage. Just imagine if Sen. Obama once expressed the slightest bit of support for Hawaiian independence (or did any of a myriad of other things the media has not yet sufficiently called McCain on)? Rush Limbaugh could run on auto-pilot.

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

CSI: Paris

A co-worker of mine had his home in a very nice exurb of Paris burglarized last week. I guess the criminal element here does not take a vacation in August. Computers and electronic equipment were stolen. Thankfully, no one was home when it happened.

In breaking a window to enter the home, the thief left some blood at the scene of the crime. A great clue, right? Well, the police said that the prosecutor will have to decide if it is worth the 500 € expense ($750) to perform a simple DNA test to see if there is a match in the database of criminals (and, for that matter, to put this DNA on file). Needless to say, it was fairly shocking to me -- and to the victim -- that there is even a question whether or not to perform this test.

While Sarkozy was running for president, his son's scooter was stolen. With help from fingerprints and DNA tests, the culprits were found. It was a mini-scandal for the campaign that Sarkozy's son got such special treatment, and now I have a better understanding why.

Saturday, August 23, 2008

It's Biden

There are plenty of predictions I've gotten wrong over the years, but this is my blog, so I will point out the rare occasion when I actually called it. You won't see me re-posting my "Kerry Will Win" prediction or my "Drake Bulldogs to the Sweet 16" prediction here. (But this one was pretty close.)

Picking Biden means there may be 1 or 2 days during the campaign where he says something off-script. And he won't deliver a state. But he doesn't need to be introduced to the American people and he reassures older voters, particularly Catholics and non-urbanites in the belt from Scranton to Dubuque.

I don't consider the fact that Sen. Obama has been in the Senate for less than a full term a problem; obviously, his judgment has been proven right time and again -- particularly in foreign affairs. But the word "inexperience" has become the all-purpose crutch for those unwilling to support Obama for non-ideological reasons, whether they are upset Hillary lost, are scared of change, believe whatever their second cousin e-mails them, or whatever else. Like the other VP candidates with long resumes (Nunn or Daschle), Biden provides an answer to that on paper. More than those other guys, though, Biden will respond with a flourish. Ultimately, as an Obama supporter, I think he's the right choice because over the last week, it's become apparent that Obama needs a counter-puncher who is more comfortable on the attack than Obama himself. As a political junkie, I'm thinking that after the shallowness of recent weeks, this campaign could actually get rather fun.

Thursday, August 21, 2008

The Business Lunch

On my first day as a summer associate at my law firm in 1999, my mentor took me out to lunch and we each had a beer. Apart from some celebratory lunches following cases that had been won in the morning (and no work was expected in the afternoon), that was the last time I had alcohol at lunch on a work day until I arrived in France.


On my first day at the office here, I immediately noticed that the client's cafeteria serves beer and wine at lunch. I rarely see anyone drinking there at lunch, but if you are out at a restaurant on a business lunch, it is de rigueur. This is what usually happens when my client and I are out to lunch before an afternoon meeting outside the office:


Him (to the waiter): "2 glasses of champagne, please."


Me (internal monologue): Champagne? Why are we celebrating? We haven't had the meeting yet.


Him (to me): "Do you want wine?"


Me: "This is going to be an important meeting, but, OK, I can have a glass."


Him (to the waiter): "We will have a bottle of ..."


It doesn't matter where we are -- recently we were at a pub in London and to celebrate a positive development, he ordered champagne.

Once, I committed a faux pas by turning down the champagne before lunch, already knowing that we would be splitting a bottle of wine during the meal and thinking of all that had to be accomplished that afternoon.


I have to admit, though, that nothing terrible has yet happened after one of these lunches, but I do not think this is a custom I will bring home with me.

Sunday, August 17, 2008

Chamonix & How to Be a Conspicuous Tourist





This was a 3-day weekend in France and I used the opportunity to take my 5th weekend trip away from Paris (but first since I started blogging) to the town of Chamonix at the foot of Mont Blanc at the border with Switzerland and Italy. Chamonix was the home of the first Winter Olympics and is known both for its skiing and the opportunities for various daredevil sports. At the risk of annoying you with vacation itineraries, here is what happened.


The trip takes 6 hours and 3 different trains, which is probably good preparation for The Amazing Race. The final leg is on the "Mont Blanc Express" which is quite the misnomer. It seemed to stop wherever there were more than 5 buildings and went so slowly I think you could have walked along the track, flagged it down, and it would have stopped for you.


Chamonix is a great place, though. I'm not a skiier (which is why I was visiting in August), but it seemed to be a ski town that was accommodating to both the student traveller/backpacker types and to the wealthy, not to mention those in between.
The highlight of the trip was taking the suspended cable car "flying" up from the town (elevation 3,500 feet) to an elevation of 12,600 feet for a close-up view of Mont Blanc. The ride up there was not harrowing and it was fairly amazing, but when our ascent stopped for about 5 seconds, everyone on that car had to be wondering if we were about to start sliding back down the cable and if the ticket sellers had put a few too many people on that trip. For all I know, the pause was probably just done for effect.

After going to all the various look-out spots and taking pictures, I took the cable car half-way back to town, down to about 7,500 feet. At that point, I took a 2.5 hour mostly horizontal hike from just above the tree line to just below it. This is called the "Grand Balcon du Nord" trail. It is fairly wide in most spots, and it is not that difficult a hike, as evidenced by the fact that I did it, but there are no rails or ropes to hang on to. The most difficult part is a 20-minute optional portion where you go up at least 600 feet, but it is worth it for the feeling of accomplishment. At the end of the 2.5 hour hike, you can either descend to town on foot or by train, and I was ready for a nap, so I took the train.

On the 3rd and final leg of my train trip back to Paris today, on the high-speed train from Lyon, I was seated with a 60-something American couple and their English relatives touring France. I wasn't going to say anything, but when the lady asked her husband if the train was non-stop and he didn't know, she pointed to me, and said "Ask him," assuming I was French. While it could have been very funny to wait for this man to try to ask me in French, and then for me to see how long I could impersonate a French person, he looked mortified to ask me, so I told her myself in English. They were all very nice people, but they kept correcting themselves to speak more quietly. It reminded me of when I was in Paris as a tourist in 2001 and immediately after arriving, I met a friend and we were on the Metro when he told me I was talking too loud, and I'm sure I was. It is never a good idea to be too conspicuous as a tourist, if no other reason than it is very hard to explain why your T-shirt says "Tennessee Volunteers" to someone in France -- it doesn't translate easily to those unfamiliar with the mascots of the Southeastern Conference. Anyway, at some point one person in that party asked if Michael Phelps had won his 8th gold, and when told that he had, this person shouted "Yay, USA" so everyone on board could hear. Probably not a shining moment in Franco-American relations.

The 3 attached photos show the cable car, a view from the top looking down on some skiiers, and a picture taken during my hike.

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Watching the Olympics

France won its first gold medal (but 11th overall) of the Games today in wrestling, which was about the last sport for which I imagined the French could win a medal, along with baseball and table tennis.

I don't offer this as a criticism, but I had noticed over the years that you never see a medal ceremony broadcast on American TV unless the Americans won the gold medal. Obviously, I don't know if it's the same this year, but every 4 years, this has meant missing out on great national anthems, like Finland's. (Just kidding, I have never heard the Finnish national anthem before, probably because they don't play it on American TV during the Olympics.)

Well, I can report that the French don't show any medal ceremonies until they win the gold medal either. They do have a good anthem, though.

The main difference between the French and US broadcasts is what sports are emphasized. I have seen a lot of fencing this week, some kayaking, and a fair bit of judo. No gymnastics or basketball, but a lot of swimming, as Michael Phelps' stardom has made its way over here. It is nice to see some of the lesser-known events get their moment in the spotlight, if only because those happen to be the sports where the French are winning some medals.

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

A Blogging Statistic That Will Only Interest Me

I subscribe to a neat free service that tells me if anyone visits my blog via a search engine. In the last month, I've had over 120 hits (it's probably just one person who keeps hitting "refresh" only to see I only post something 2 or 3 times a week), but only one via a search engine. So what term did a stranger type into Google to find this little corner of the Web?

Chicken Shack.

Yes, Chicken Shack. Careful readers will recall I referred to the haute cuisine of Hyde Park, Harold's Chicken Shack, in my post on the Monsieur Lapin restaurant. A few days ago, someone in Moscow -- yes, that is correct -- typed "Chicken Shack" into Google and found that posting, which I doubt was of much assistance. So to my Russian reader, I say приветствовать. (Welcome.)

Veepstakes: The Predictions

Feel free to skip this if you are looking for a semi-funny anecdote about France, but political predictions are a hobby of mine, and I feel a need to write this quickly before actual events overtake me. For both candidates, here are my thoughts on: 1) someone who is supposedly on the short list for VP, but should not be chosen; 2) whom I think they actually will select; and 3) whom I would choose if I were in their position.


McCain

Whom I would avoid: Fmr. OH Rep. Rob Portman; AK Gov. Sarah Palin. Portman is frequently listed as one of McCain's top 3 choices, but I have no idea why. As someone who has had a Cabinet-level appointment in the Bush Administration, he would make it easier for Democrats to pin the Bush years on McCain. If he could carry Ohio, that might be worth it, but the man once represented 1/18 of the state in Congress -- I don't think that will swing the state. As for Palin, she could be impressive, but McCain can't select someone who has held office for a shorter period than Obama -- that would undercut McCain's best argument.


Whom he will select: The smart money, and just the moderately intelligent money, is on Mitt Romney. No one would make a more positive Electoral College map impact than Romney who could affect 4 swing states: MI, NH, NV, and maybe CO. My gut feeling is that the personal chemistry just isn't there and ultimately McCain will realize he needs to make a surprise pick (see below), but there's a reason why they call it the smart money, and I can't come up with a more plausible name. (How's that for having it both ways?) Or this is all wrong, and he selects MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty.


Whom I would select, but he won't: McCain currently trails nationwide by about 4-5 points. This is a particularly dangerous margin for him, because it allows his campaign to think they are within striking distance and don't need to make any bold moves, when in fact, I think he's more of an underdog than polls currently show. The funding and enthusiasm disparities don't show up in these early polls. More importantly, Obama's main weakness -- people wondering if he's ready -- really can only decrease at this point (or at worst, stay the same), because as they watch the campaign for the next several months, those doubters will have several opportunities to get more comfortable with the idea of Obama as president. I believe McCain, whether or not he knows it yet, needs to do something dramatic to change the course of the campaign. One way is to pick a pro-choice candidate like NY Mayor Mike Bloomberg, former PA Gov. Tom Ridge, or best of all, Colin Powell (if he's not for Obama). Assuming he cannot do that due to party politics, I would pick a woman -- MI Rep. Candice Miller (and a former statewide elected official). Of course, absolutely no one is talking about her.


Obama

Whom I would avoid: Former GA Sen. Sam Nunn. It is tempting to pick an old Washington hand to be a benevolent Dick Cheney to an outsider president, but Sam Nunn just makes it look like overcompensating.


Whom he will select: For weeks, I've gone back and forth between IN Sen. Evan Bayh & DE Sen. Joe Biden. Bayh could be an olive branch to Hillary supporters, he highlights generational change, and he could tip Indiana. But, he was a vocal supporter of the Iraq War (at the beginning) and the Dems would probably lose his Senate seat. When I started writing this, I was about to say it would be Bayh, but I've flip-flopped again back to Biden. A strong debater with working class appeal, his only drawback is potentially undercutting Obama's "change" theme. Ultimately, though, I've decided that Obama represents enough change in and of himself, and doesn't need a VP pick to reinforce that. And to throw another name out there, while Obama probably is not considering any dark horse candidates at this point, one who would "check off" a lot of boxes (Catholic, experienced, economic expertise, not in DC right now, from the Clinton wing) is Leon Panetta. There, I've given 3 names, but I will say it will be Biden ... for now.


Whom I would select, but he won't: I will give two names out of left field. First, many believe that Obama needs to select someone with long years of service to reassure the public that the Obama-YYYY ticket is ready to govern. The drawback, as discussed with Biden, is that this may undercut the central campaign message of changing Washington. Who has Washington experience, but yet retains something of an outsider image/independent appeal, and not to mention has already been fully vetted? Former NJ Sen. Bill Bradley. Plus, an Obama-Bradley ticket would be the best basketball duo in the history of presidential campaigns.

My second name is Warren Buffett. Yes, that's really out of left field, but he's a Democrat, and there are few people more respected on the economy, not to mention in general, in the country. How would he handle a VP debate? I don't have to answer that, because there's no way anyone is actually considering this.

OK, in a few weeks I will likely have some egg on my face, but I think I have listed enough names here that there is at least a 25% chance that I get something right.

Any disagreements, trial balloons, or prop bet offers are welcome in the comments section.

Friday, August 8, 2008

Mr. Rabbit

*Warning* My vegetarian friends may not want to read this post.

It was a good day at the office. I can't talk about my work. Whoops, wrong link. This is the correct one. But I can say that when I have a good day, I want to have a good French meal. The microwaveable meals here are better than those at home, but I feel a little silly living in Paris and eating TV dinners every night. I have a list of traditional French restaurants in the neighborhood that are recommended in various places on the internet and I intend to try them all out before I leave. I walked by several tonight, but they were closed for the month (see my previous post), so I ended up at Monsieur Lapin.

That translates to Mr. Rabbit. Walking in, it reminded me somewhat of one of my old haunts when I lived on the South Side of Chicago in law school: Harold's Chicken Shack. There is really only one similarity between the two. When you go to Harold's Chicken Shack, there are chickens on the wallpaper, which I always found a little disconcerting, considering the menu. At Monsieur Lapin, there are stuffed rabbits and rabbit-themed art.

In case you hadn't guessed by now, there is a speciality of the house at Monsieur Lapin. I don't know, but I imagine it may be the world's most expensive restaurant specializing in rabbit. It has to at least be in the top 5%. This didn't really concern me -- at last week's French restaurant, my starter was croustillant de pied de porc. That would be pig's foot. (For the record, it's a little fattening.) Plus, I like defying the French waiter's stereotype of what Americans eat. I've ordered andouilette a few times and am usually met with the response, "Do you know what that is?" Come on, they serve it in New Orleans!

This blog is not going to become a restaurant review, but because M. Lapin is unusual, I feel I must report that I began with a starter of rabbit terrine, but decided two courses of rabbit would be a little much, so I had veal kidney for the main course. (OK, I warned you two to stop reading at the beginning.) I do not know why, but it seems to this lay man that French cuisine does have an unusual emphasis on what we would consider the less pleasant parts of livestock. My guess is this is a relic from a time when people really needed to utilize all parts of the animal, but I don't know.

Apparently my French pronounciation is not yet where it needs to be, because tonight after asking for a table for one and saying I did not have a reservation in French, they gave me an English menu. That happens about half of the time. Sometimes, I get seated in what I call "the American sector" with the tourists. Once, I was next to a Swedish couple who had the hardest time trying to order something light from the menu. The man's order of a salad arrived, and the woman somehow confused the waiter into bringing her a plate teeming with sausages and sauerkraut. The 3 of us could not stop laughing. Tonight, I was seated next to a fashion designer from New York who is in town to see her daughter's ballet company perform here. She had been to Des Moines several times, the first when she played one of the Van Trapp daughters in the first national touring production of The Sound of Music. We were talking politics and she asked me to talk about current issues in agricultural policy. I kid you not. Paris can be a good place to make friends, when you know the language you're speaking. And when you're eating veal kidney at Mr. Rabbit, it can be nice to see an American.

Wednesday, August 6, 2008

A Quiet City

Watching the French take their famous 4 week vacations in the summer is truly something to behold. Somewhere between the start of July and the end of August, all of my co-workers are leaving the city for 3 to 4 weeks. One smart person is delaying his holiday until September, thus allowing him 2 quiet months at the office followed by a month away when everyone else is here. What is not really clear to me is exactly where all these people have gone. A lot are at the Riviera, but I didn't think they could accommodate the entire population of Paris down there.

We are in the heart of the holiday period right now, and you can't walk down a street in my neighborhood without seeing shops, bakeries, and small restaurants with signs on their windows announcing they will re-open at the end of the month. This coincides with noticeably warmer weather, but it hasn't gotten too bad yet, and I enjoy a less crowded and quieter city.

While I cannot take 4 weeks off (and indeed since 75% of my work here involves the Anglophonic world, I am busier right now than I have been in several months), I was able to take advantage of a peculiarity in the 2008 calendar. Both May 1 (Labor Day) and May 8 (what we would call Victory in Europe Day) are national holidays here. This year, both fell on Thursdays, so our office was closed on the following Fridays as well. Better still, the Monday after Pentecost Sunday is a holiday in France. Like Easter, Pentecost is not a fixed date, but this year it happened to be May 11. Thus, I had a 4-day weekend for Labor Day followed by a 5-day weekend for V-E Day and Pentecost.

As for myself, I hope to pull off a 2-week vacation at the end of my stint here (negotiations will soon begin on that). I haven't had more than 1 week off at a time since I joined the workforce 7 years ago, and never thought I would have the chance to take 2 weeks off until paternity leave, which is probably not particularly imminent.

Monday, August 4, 2008

Making Commuting Bearable


I have long said that if Chicago wants to get the Olympics in 2016, it will have to completely refurbish the CTA. Spending time abroad only confirms that. Despite both systems being roughly the same age, the Paris Metro is leaps and bounds ahead of the CTA:

1) With 14 train lines, I have yet to find a place in the city that is more than a 10 minute walk from a station, though there probably are some on the city's outskirts. (The picture is of my nearest station, Mouton Duvernet. As you can tell by the lack of foliage, I didn't take the picture.)

2) During rush hour, you never have to wait more than 2 minutes for a train. The longest you might have to wait on a weekend is 7 minutes, if you're unlucky enough to arrive at a station right after a train left.

3) Despite the weak dollar, it's still a little cheaper.

4) No embarrassing accidents (at least that I have heard of).

5) Despite Chicago being a far cleaner city than Paris, and the Metro here not nearly as tidy as, say, Washington DC's subway, the Paris Metro does manage to have slightly cleaner stations than Chicago. In other words, I will occasionally sit down on the benches they provide.

6) The quality of the busking musicians. There may be a few too many accordions in use on the Metro, but this is much, much better than the song and, um, interpretative dance I witnessed on the CTA earlier this year. I would say more, but I am trying to keep this a family-friendly blog.

There is one major drawback in Paris that I have fortunately avoided: strikes. My co-workers were telling me of one particularly annoying kind of strike that the transit workers here have done a few times in the last few years: the afternoon strike. In other words, you take the train to work in the morning, but then can't get home.

Due to geography, politics, and the fact that Brazil is already hosting the 2014 World Cup, I think Chicago has an excellent shot to win the right to host the 2016 Games. I am willing to put up with all the construction, traffic, and annoyances that residents have to suffer if it just means that we finally get a world-class transit system (though I have no idea how they can pay for it).

Friday, August 1, 2008

The Euro (or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love to Spend)

If 6 months in France is changing me in any way, it is making me more willing to spend money. I'd like to characterize myself as frugal (others may use less diplomatic terms), but frugality does not last very long when 1 € = $1.60.

The first place you notice it is at the grocery store. My groceries here are roughly twice as expensive as in downtown Chicago (and thus more than twice as expensive as groceries bought in Hyde Park or Iowa). Obviously, some of that is due to the weak dollar, and there is a 5.5% grocery sales tax here.

Dining out is very expensive. A club sandwich at a pub restaurant that looked like a French Bennigan's cost 12 € or about $19. I could probably buy that at home for $9, plus tip. Once a week, I go out for a nice French meal. (The French Bennigan's does not count.) 3 courses and a glass of wine generally costs around 40-45 €. And while I'm not paying my rent here, I know what it costs, and it is about twice as expensive as a comparable Chicago rental apartment.

Eventually, you acclimate to the higher cost of living, so when I go home, I expect I will be much more willing to spend. There are a few things here, though, that are cheaper. First, beer and wine are noticeably less expensive (though not spirits). Second, my company cafeteria, partially subsidized, of course, where for lunch I get a hot meal, vegetables, and dessert for about 4 €. Thus, I actually pay less for a better lunch than I usually get in Chicago. Third, public transportation, which I assume is partially subsidized, and where my monthly Metro pass works out to about 1.20 € per ride, slightly less than the CTA in Chicago.