Apparently, John McCain will pick Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate. You may recall I named her as a person he should not pick. It does show, however, that McCain and his campaign decided they had to do something extraordinary, and not make a safe choice. If they really thought they had a 50/50 shot at winning this election, they would not have chosen someone who two years ago was mayor of a town of 8,000 people and for less than two years has been governor of one of our smallest states. Rather, they decided that in order to win they need to peel off people who supported Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary.
I do not want to sound crass when I write this, but it is the simple truth: actuarially speaking, whomever the candidates actually chose, John McCain's VP was always more likely to become president than Barack Obama's. This person's readiness should be a major issue on the minds of voters. I think it is fairly hard to argue Barack Obama is not ready to be president when your VP has so thin a resume.
Palin brings some significant advantages: an attractive mother of 5 (the youngest has Down's Syndrome), she was elected governor as a reformer, and will be a popular pick among conservatives. That reputation is tarnished somewhat by allegations she used her influence to try to fire a state trooper who was her ex-brother-in-law (UPDATE: as well as firing the head of the state police).
It is a high risk for McCain that is either brilliant or will seriously hurt his candidacy. It theoretically will bring excitement in the form of an outside-the-Beltway female conservative that bolsters McCain's "maverick" credential. If, however, Democrats can define her in the next 48 hours as unprepared to be a heartbeat away from the presidency (and maybe ethically compromised), then she may have a difficult task ahead.
(Sept. 2 UPDATE). I have been away for the last few days and not following the story closely, but it seems to me that her daughter's pregnancy should be a non-issue. Rather, her connections to the Alaskan Independence Party (which calls for a secession vote for Alaska and the takeover of federal land) and her original support for the Bridge to Nowhere should be the two most serious problems she faces. If the media does its job and focuses on them instead of her family issues, this should dominate the news coverage. Just imagine if Sen. Obama once expressed the slightest bit of support for Hawaiian independence (or did any of a myriad of other things the media has not yet sufficiently called McCain on)? Rush Limbaugh could run on auto-pilot.
5 comments:
Pete, you you are wise beyond your years. Possibly beyond her years as well.
To paraphrase a friend, why would a man with a history of leaving his wife for a younger woman pick a woman barely half his age as a running mate? Maybe he thought that since Obama doubled-down (OK, tripled down) on experience with Biden, he had a shot at wooing that key "inexperienced executive" vote.
On a more serious note, I do wonder how her pro-ANWR oil drilling position will squares with his (for now) anti-ANWR position.
To use a poker analogy, it seems like going all-in with suited, low connectors. It seems like a brilliant move but in politics, nobody folds.
Certainly, she will make some ardent Clinton supporters think twice, but then again she is pro-life, which might make them think thrice.
I think the big question will be how she handles the media scrutiny over the coming weeks.
If Biden makes a major gaffe, the reaction might be "well there goes Biden, as expected". But if Paulin makes a major gaffe, the whole thing could look like a TV movie.
Thanks for the astute commentary (and, CB, I am older than I look).
I've been travelling for a few days without internet access, so I have missed much of what has come out recently. We have not heard the last of the ANWR issue, her initial support for the Bridge to Nowhere, her endorsement from the Alaska Independence Party, and the many other things the McCain campaign did not fully vet (but her grandchild should definitely not be an issue). I do not think she will make Quayle-type flubs, but at the end of the day, I don't think this is a pick that will impress independents or even moderate Republicans. Time will tell, but I am feeling pretty good as of today.
I would like to share my initial reaction to the nytimes.com photo of her-- is that the VP nominee or a LensCrafters commercial?
Yes, the irony of her pregnant kid daughter (proper use of irony? hypocrisy? not sure) and the Pat Buchanan love train she's on are headliners but I agree, Wise PBS, there are TRULY shady things about this person that we can't even begin to dream about-- and they need to come to the surface ASAP.
Pshaw! What's so shady about a VP candidate being a one time supporter of Alaskan secession? I mean who hasn't?
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