Veepstakes: The Predictions

Feel free to skip this if you are looking for a semi-funny anecdote about France, but political predictions are a hobby of mine, and I feel a need to write this quickly before actual events overtake me. For both candidates, here are my thoughts on: 1) someone who is supposedly on the short list for VP, but should not be chosen; 2) whom I think they actually will select; and 3) whom I would choose if I were in their position.


McCain

Whom I would avoid: Fmr. OH Rep. Rob Portman; AK Gov. Sarah Palin. Portman is frequently listed as one of McCain's top 3 choices, but I have no idea why. As someone who has had a Cabinet-level appointment in the Bush Administration, he would make it easier for Democrats to pin the Bush years on McCain. If he could carry Ohio, that might be worth it, but the man once represented 1/18 of the state in Congress -- I don't think that will swing the state. As for Palin, she could be impressive, but McCain can't select someone who has held office for a shorter period than Obama -- that would undercut McCain's best argument.


Whom he will select: The smart money, and just the moderately intelligent money, is on Mitt Romney. No one would make a more positive Electoral College map impact than Romney who could affect 4 swing states: MI, NH, NV, and maybe CO. My gut feeling is that the personal chemistry just isn't there and ultimately McCain will realize he needs to make a surprise pick (see below), but there's a reason why they call it the smart money, and I can't come up with a more plausible name. (How's that for having it both ways?) Or this is all wrong, and he selects MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty.


Whom I would select, but he won't: McCain currently trails nationwide by about 4-5 points. This is a particularly dangerous margin for him, because it allows his campaign to think they are within striking distance and don't need to make any bold moves, when in fact, I think he's more of an underdog than polls currently show. The funding and enthusiasm disparities don't show up in these early polls. More importantly, Obama's main weakness -- people wondering if he's ready -- really can only decrease at this point (or at worst, stay the same), because as they watch the campaign for the next several months, those doubters will have several opportunities to get more comfortable with the idea of Obama as president. I believe McCain, whether or not he knows it yet, needs to do something dramatic to change the course of the campaign. One way is to pick a pro-choice candidate like NY Mayor Mike Bloomberg, former PA Gov. Tom Ridge, or best of all, Colin Powell (if he's not for Obama). Assuming he cannot do that due to party politics, I would pick a woman -- MI Rep. Candice Miller (and a former statewide elected official). Of course, absolutely no one is talking about her.


Obama

Whom I would avoid: Former GA Sen. Sam Nunn. It is tempting to pick an old Washington hand to be a benevolent Dick Cheney to an outsider president, but Sam Nunn just makes it look like overcompensating.


Whom he will select: For weeks, I've gone back and forth between IN Sen. Evan Bayh & DE Sen. Joe Biden. Bayh could be an olive branch to Hillary supporters, he highlights generational change, and he could tip Indiana. But, he was a vocal supporter of the Iraq War (at the beginning) and the Dems would probably lose his Senate seat. When I started writing this, I was about to say it would be Bayh, but I've flip-flopped again back to Biden. A strong debater with working class appeal, his only drawback is potentially undercutting Obama's "change" theme. Ultimately, though, I've decided that Obama represents enough change in and of himself, and doesn't need a VP pick to reinforce that. And to throw another name out there, while Obama probably is not considering any dark horse candidates at this point, one who would "check off" a lot of boxes (Catholic, experienced, economic expertise, not in DC right now, from the Clinton wing) is Leon Panetta. There, I've given 3 names, but I will say it will be Biden ... for now.


Whom I would select, but he won't: I will give two names out of left field. First, many believe that Obama needs to select someone with long years of service to reassure the public that the Obama-YYYY ticket is ready to govern. The drawback, as discussed with Biden, is that this may undercut the central campaign message of changing Washington. Who has Washington experience, but yet retains something of an outsider image/independent appeal, and not to mention has already been fully vetted? Former NJ Sen. Bill Bradley. Plus, an Obama-Bradley ticket would be the best basketball duo in the history of presidential campaigns.

My second name is Warren Buffett. Yes, that's really out of left field, but he's a Democrat, and there are few people more respected on the economy, not to mention in general, in the country. How would he handle a VP debate? I don't have to answer that, because there's no way anyone is actually considering this.

OK, in a few weeks I will likely have some egg on my face, but I think I have listed enough names here that there is at least a 25% chance that I get something right.

Any disagreements, trial balloons, or prop bet offers are welcome in the comments section.